2012-2013 Winter Outlook

What does the upcoming WINTER season hold for us?

INTERESTING MAP:

According to the Farmer's Almanac map above, it appears Tennessee will be a battleground with "wet and chilly conditions." The "colder than normal with mixed snow, sleet, and rain" is located just to our north. The combination of the two portends an interesting set-up for the 2012-2013 winter season. 

SNOW:

The Old Farmer's Almanac (above) shows a cold, snowy winter across our area for the 2012-2013 winter season. This will please both school kids and teachers but give administrators and weather guys lots of gray hair!

ANOTHER POSSIBLE SCENARIO:

Looking at data from the Climate Prediction Center (below), I am not as encouraged about prospects for a good, snowy winter. The first map is the 3-month outlook for precip while map #2 is the temperature map. Look at what each letter means by clicking on the maps below. With average temperatures and somewhat drier conditions, this could be a winter lacking for snowfall.

MORE INFORMATION SOON:

I do expect to receive more data in the mid-late October timeframe. This will help us to ZERO IN on a good winter prediction. As always, winters are very unpredictable right up to the point of you looking outdoors to see if snow actually accumulated. Don't get too wrapped up in the long-term forecast or the exact amount, if any, with forecasted snow. Always make preparations when we do have a prediction of imminent snow. Cookeville, TN can be much snowier than forecasts for the Nashville area. 

QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS, AND MORE QUESTIONS:

Got questions? Don't hesitate to contact me!  

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Cloudy Start, Sunny Afternoon

A chilly and cloudy start this morning with temperatures in the middle 60's. We'll have a light north wind becoming north northwest from 5 to 10 mph later today. We'll eventually begin to see the clouds breaking up with a partly sunny sky. The afternoon high will be in the mid 70's.

Note the very light and scattered nature of measurable rainfall in the last 24 hours.
Click on graphic to enlarge.

Overnight, patchy fog will develop after 3 am with a low of 54° by Sunday at sunrise. The fog will stay around until around 7 am for most areas. We'll become partly sunny with a high of 72° and winds will be northeast around 5 mph.

Showers likely overnight Sunday into Monday lasting through Tuesday. The best chance for rain is early Monday morning all the way through Monday night. Expect highs on Monday around 70°. Highs next week will mainly be in the 70's with sunny skies by Wednesday. Lows mainly in the 50's.

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Thunderstorms Likely Today

Expect showers and thunderstorms today in Middle TN especially north of I-40. Highs should be in the upper 70's.

**WEEKEND FORECAST**
Rain chances continue tonight with a low of 59°. Bring your rain gear to the Friday night football game. A slight chance for showers on Saturday with a high of 75° and then sunshine and 77° on Sunday!

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Scattered Thunderstorms Today

We're moving into an unsettled pattern across the area today through Saturday. Expect highs around 80° this afternoon with a 40% chance of thunderstorms. Chances increase overnight to 60% with a low of 62° and remain at 60% on Friday with a high of 77°. After the rain chances pull out on Saturday, temperatures will be cooler with highs on Saturday and Sunday of 74°with skies becoming sunny on Sunday.

Yesterday's high was 82°, which was the first day in the last 11 that we were that warm. Rainfall remains at 11.50" for September, but we're sure to add to that total over at least the next 36-48 hours.

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Sunshine and Warm Today

Expect a very nice day across the Upper Cumberland today with daytime highs hitting 83° with plenty of sunshine. I do think we'll see a slight chance of a thunderstorm tonight through Thursday night with a better chance on both Friday and Saturday. Highs through the period will be in the lower to mid 80's cooling off to the lower 70's by Saturday. Sunshine on Sunday with a high of 71°.

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Expect Frost By Monday Sunrise

Very chilly temperatures overnight across Cookeville and into the higher elevations. Frost (patchy and light) is expected along the Highland Rim and Cumberland Plateau. With dew point temperatures in the 33° - 35° ranges and the lowest temperatures expected to be around 35°, we do expect a light frost to occur. The best chances are in lower spots (like valleys, etc.) in the region. The frost isn't expected to last very long (about 2 hours at most).

Monday's highs will hit 72°, which is about 6° warmer than Sunday's high of 66°. By Tuesday, we should push 80° and then 82° for both Wednesday and Thursday. I do expect this to be a dry period at least through Thursday night.

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Possible Lows In The 30's

Autumn is officially in swing across middle Tennessee. We're expecting lows by Sunday morning around 45° in Cookeville and highs on Sunday afternoon in mid to upper 60's. The low by Monday at sunrise may well be in the upper 30's! The last time we saw 30's was way back on April 24 of this year.

I do expect a nice warming trend this week with Monday's highs around 70° with Tuesday temps hitting the mid 70's and Wednesday near 80°.

Saturday's high was 76.0° at 1:49 pm

No rain has fallen over the last 24 hours and I don't expect we'll see any until possibly Wednesday and those chances aren't very impressive.

Enjoy a gorgeous Sunday and bundle up if outdoors Sunday night and the first parts of Monday morning.


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Jacket Weather Has Arrived

Quite a cool start across the Upper Cumberland. At 7 am, most of us were in the middle 40's. The low in Cookeville was 43.7° at 4:44 am.

BEAUTIFUL DAY AHEAD:
I do expect us to slowly warm to near 50° by 8 am and to near 70° later this afternoon under sunny skies. We'll have another very chilly morning on Thursday under a clear sky. You can certainly expect temperatures to drop quickly after sunset this evening. A jacket would be in order for today, tonight, and in the morning.

SLIGHT WARM UP:
Thursday's high will be 77° and Friday should make it close to 80°.

JUST HOW WET?
An update for you on the rainfall. We currently stand at 11.49" for September, which is the rainiest month since April 2011.

A very interesting stat is that we've had more rainfall this month than all of April, May, June  and July!

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Major Rain Event

The past 24 hours saw a major rain event strike the Cookeville area with as much as 6.72" recorded. Since midnight on Monday, we've recorded 7.05" here at my home. Reports are coming in early this morning of 6.41" at a CoCoRaHS station 3.3 miles south southwest of Cookeville and 6.35" at a station in White County (near the Putnam line). Over the next couple of hours, we'll have a much more complete picture of exactly how much rain fell.

The flooding rains kept the first response teams very busy as streets flooded trapping passengers in their automobiles.

In last evenings post, I listed the top 10 rain events for Cookeville since 1896 and this one is sure to be close to the top..if not the most ever for a 24-hour period.

Our forecast is for temperatures to be chilly over the next couple of days. The complete forecast is in the link below.

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Flooding Rains

September 17, 2012 will be very memorable day for all the wrong reasons in Cookeville, TN. About 5 pm, rain began falling heavily after a mainly wet day across the area. In a two-hour period, sections of the city recorded more than 3.75" causing major flooding across roads throughout the city.

At 8:30 pm, we've got 6.25" in the rain gauge since midnight.

The official list of the 10 rainiest days ever in Cookeville:

COOKEVILLE (402009)
Extremes
Highest Daily Precipitation (inches)
Days: 1/1 - 12/31
Length of period: 1 day
Years: 1896-2012

Rank  Value  Ending Date
  1    6.06  9/29/1964
  2    5.28  3/13/1975
  3    5.27  5/7/1984
  4    5.21  6/29/1928
  5    4.80  11/27/1973
  6    4.66  9/29/1944
  7    4.65  2/6/2004
  8    4.43  12/13/1998
  9    4.36  9/17/2004
 10    4.30  7/8/1979

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Flood Watch Today and Tonight

A strengthening low pressure system is moving into middle TN later today and tonight. It'll bring rain, heavy at times, across our area with 3-5" extended for much of the mid-state and even higher amounts toward the Cumberland Plateau.

Locally, here in Cookeville, a flood watch is in effect from 7 o'clock this morning through Tuesday morning. Flooding in low lying areas is likely even though soil conditions are generally dry. Low river levels will help the area from having widespread flooding, but localized flooding will be possible.

Please stay tuned to local media and right here for the latest. The rest of the forecast is located below. Enjoy the cooler weather!

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Big Weather Changes Ahead

Some significant updates in the weather forecast. We've been watching the last few days the possibility of heavy rains across much of middle TN for Monday lasting into Tuesday. The other possibility was a big drop in temperatures. Both scenarios will play out in the upcoming week.

NICE SUNDAY:
First, the Sunday forecast. Expect only a slight chance of a shower with a mostly cloudy sky and highs near 80°. This is likely the last 80° day for quite some time as I don't see any chance we get back there in the next 10-14 day stretch UNLESS something changes. Rain chances increase to 40% overnight with a low of 63°.

VERY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE:
A cold front will begin to descend upon our area on Monday and bring with it a 90% chance of heavy rains and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs Monday only in the middle 70's. On Monday night, the chance of heavy rains stay with us with a low in the lower 60's. One to three inches of rain is likely with amounts up to 5" of rainfall is possible through the period. This may cause some local flooding especially in the heavier downpours and in the usual locations.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER:
Frontal passage occurs in the early morning hours of Tuesday and our winds will transition to the northwest and could be gusty. Tuesday's highs only near 70°, easily the coolest day since earlier in the Spring. Chilly Tuesday night with lows in the upper 40's and Wednesday highs will be in the upper 60's with lows Wednesday night in the mid 40's!

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Slight Shower Chances

Cooler today with highs reaching around 80° for Friday. I expect we may see a shower or two, but chances are not that great. Saturday's forecast will be nice with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70's. A few more clouds Sunday with a slight chance of a thunderstorm and a high near 80°.

We started at 56° this morning after starting in the 60's the last couple of days. The extended forecast does call for highs only in the 70's and lows in the 60's with a good chance of rain on Monday and Tuesday. I don't see us topping 80° all of next week. Enjoy your Friday.

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Another Nice Day

An excellent Thursday is on tap for the Upper Cumberland as we expect mostly sunny skies this afternoon and a high of 81°. We were in the lower 80's yesterday. This morning we started at 61.3° and have warmed to 64.7° as of 7:15 this morning.

Rainfall is in our forecast for Friday although it is a very slight chance. We are taking rain out of your Saturday forecast but putting it in for Sunday, Sunday night, and Monday. Best chance is Sunday night and Monday.

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Clouds This Morning, Sunny This Afternoon

We're waking up to clouds across the area today but they will move out and we'll have a sunny day. Expect highs around 82°. The weather will be the same for Thursday and Friday with highs in the lower 80's and lows in the 60's.

The low this morning was 62.8°, which is the warmest low since last Friday. We had four straight days in the 50's. Next rain chances return for Saturday night and Sunday.

Looks like highs in the 90's are over for this year. I'm sure that makes most of you HAPPY!

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Mostly Sunny Monday

Another fantastic day on tap for the Cookeville, TN area for Monday with highs around 80° this afternoon after a morning start of 51° for the second straight morning. Expect nothing but sunny skies!

The sunny skies will continue all week with a slight warming trend into the middle 80's with lows at night in the mid to upper 50's. A great taste of late summer/early autumn. It makes us ready for the leaves to change.

Got to love this weather!

*Latest Local Forecast*

Cookeville's Daily Almanac
September 10, 2012
Yesterday's high: 76.8° 
This morning's low: 51.6°
Normal: 83/58
Records: 99° in 1896 and 40° in 1976
Last year: 80/53

Rainfall 
0.00" at my station
September total: 4.37"
2012 total: 36.31"
1.20" of rain fell on this date in 1960

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Sunny Days and Cool Nights

Back from a week and a half break!

Quite a bit of interesting weather while I was gone.

4.36" of rain has fallen in the first 8 days of September. Also, there was a 39 mph wind gust about 3 am Saturday morning along with some small hail. This caused some trees to fall and large branches to be taken down as well across the city. August saw 5.45" of rainfall, which is considered very wet. We are beginning to recover from an exceptionally dry spring and a very dry first half of summer.

Also noticed we saw some HOT days during the first week of September with all but two days in the 80's or 90's. Heat index readings reached near 100° during two of those hot days.

The next few days are going to be absolutely beautiful. Expect a low in the lower 50's by Sunday morning with some remote locations dropping to the upper 40's. Sunday's highs will top out around 75° with a chilly night Sunday night and sunny skies for all of next week with highs around 80° and lows generally in the 50's and 60's. No rain until next weekend.

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