Wet and Windy Wednesday

Expect a rainy Wednesday with falling temperatures today. A line of storms roared through the area setting off numerous watches and warnings before daybreak. There is some scattered damage reported in the Cookeville area. I'm sure many more reports will come out after daybreak. So far 1.05" of rainfall has been received (in the 5 am - 7 am timeframe).

*Middle TN Storm Damage Reports*

The Nashville office of the National Weather Service is deploying storm damage teams to several counties across middle TN to see if damage was caused by straight-line winds or possible tornadoes. I'll report on their findings once they are available.

The rest of Wednesday is expected to be rainy and chilly with falling temperatures. Currently at 7 am, it is 55°...winds could gust in the 15 to 20 mph range this afternoon. Overnight expect continued falling temps and a possibility of a rain/snow mixture late. Chance of snow is 40% with less than a half inch possible.

Cold, sunny, and only 38° for Thursday with snow showers possible with a reinforcement of cold air and a low of 20° on Thursday night.

For Friday, very cold with a high of 30° and a low of 18°. Rain chances on Saturday and sunny on Sunday.

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Window Rattling Winds

Expect a noisy overnight across the entire region as winds will gust to 45 mph.

We've already seen top gusts over 30 mph and anticipate this continuing through Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures are in the upper 60's and that will be good breeding grounds for potentially strong storms by daybreak on Wednesday.

*Wind Advisory*

Nashville westward into Arkansas are under a Tornado Watch overnight and at 10:30 pm, strong storms are affecting all of the counties on the Mississippi River. This line will slowly move across Tennessee during the overnight hours. I still believe we are in the SLIGHT risk category for severe storms in the Cookeville and surrounding areas BUT the locations west of Nashville are in the MODERATE risk area.

*Special Weather Statement*

Expected arrival time in the Cookeville area is pegged from the 6-9 am timeframe.

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Strong to Severe Weather Overnight Tonight

A very warm and windy day ahead for the Upper Cumberland region including Cookeville and surrounding areas. We'll see highs in the upper 60's with some locations nearing 70° today. Winds will be sustained at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Overnight, showers and thunderstorms develop after midnight with the great potential (threat) for severe weather around daybreak. The low of just 59° with winds running 20 to 30 mph and gusting to 45 mph. Rain chances 100%.

Early morning thunderstorms on Wednesday with some possibly becoming severe. The high will be 62° early but will fall throughout the day. The winds will become westerly at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

Then, we fall off the proverbial temperature cliff with lows on Wednesday night of 29° and a slight chance of snow mixing with leftover rain showers. Cold Thursday with a high of 41°. Snow chances Thursday night with a low 24° and only 35° on Friday.

*Wind Advisory*

*Special Weather Statement*

*Hazardous Weather Outlook*

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Lingering Shower Chances With Warmer Temps

Cloudy for Monday with a high of 57° and a 30% chance of showers. Winds will be from 5 to 10 out of the south. We're already in the 50's this morning as you head out to work and school. A light jacket is about all that you'll need. A slight chance (20%) of showers again tonight with a low of 50°.

WARM BUT THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY:
The warming continues for Tuesday as we'll hit 67° with only a 20% chance of showers. When we're this warm in January, it can only mean two things. #1) Big thunderstorms are coming and #2) A huge drop in temps behind those storms. We'll see both of those scenarios play out as thunderstorms move in very early Wednesday morning. Some of these thunderstorms will be quite strong. They will last through the morning hours on Wednesday with winds gusting to 25 mph.

Cold on Wednesday night after frontal passage. Any lingering showers may turn into a brief period of snow showers. We'll see a high of just 42° on Thursday and another shot a some snow showers on Thursday night with a reinforcement of cold air. The low of 25°. We'll only go up to 32° on Friday.

The weekend promises slightly warmer temperatures.

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Sunday Rain Chances With Warming Temps

We'll see clouds increase with a 30% chance of rainfall after lunch today. The high will be around 50°, which is about 7 degrees warmer than Saturday's high of 43°. Today's high is tweaked them down a few degrees from yesterday's post. Slight rainfall chances continue this evening with lows by Monday morning of around 41°. We'll be about 10° warmer on Monday afternoon with a high near 60°.

WARMEST DAY IS TUESDAY:
Highs on Tuesday will be 65° under a mostly cloudy sky with thunderstorm chances ramping up to 70% with thunderstorm chances continuing on Wednesday early switching over to showers as the day goes on with highs in the 50's. By Wednesday night we will have a chance (albeit, slight) for the possibility of the rain changing over to snow. We are still several days away so we will watch that and report back as the days get closer.

SHARPLY COLDER AIR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY:
Starting Thursday through the weekend, temperatures will be MUCH colder with highs only in the upper 30's on Thursday. Another blast of cold air for Thursday night and Friday where highs will only be in the low 30's and slightly warmer on Saturday with highs in the low 40's.

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Some Sunshine But Chilly For Saturday - Warmer Weather Ahead

We'll begin the process of warming up around the Cookeville area. For today (Saturday), highs will be in the lower 40's with skies becoming partly cloudy and somewhat sunny. We started in the 20's this morning and there are a few slick spots on side streets from yesterday's cold rain and overnight freezing fog. For Saturday night and early Sunday morning, skies will be clear to partly cloudy with a low of 26°.

TEMPS RISE THIS WEEK
The warm up begins in earnest on Sunday with a high into the lower 50's. Rain chances enter the picture for Sunday night (although a low chance - just 30%) and a low of 41°. The slight rain chance continues for both Monday and Monday with temp ranges of 62° down to 49°.

The best day should be Tuesday with a partly cloudy sky and a high of 66°. Thunderstorms become likely on Tuesday night and Wednesday with a low of 52° and a high of 58°. Chilly weather returns for Wednesday night through Friday.

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Cold Thursday with Winter Precipitation Friday

An urgent winter weather message from the National Weather Service for a Winter Weather Advisory for late on Thursday night into Friday. We'll see the air aloft warm while the air at ground level will remain cold setting up perfect conditions for sleet and freezing rain. At this point it appears the most likely area for a long-term ice event is in the eastern Highland Rim and Cumberland Plateau. The advisory is in effect for the Cookeville area from midnight tonight through 6 pm on Friday. Up to 2/10ths of an inch of ice is expected. This could cause major travel difficulties.

*Colorful Maps at NWS-Nashville*

For today (Thursday), expect a cold north wind and temps to only moderate into the lower 30's this afternoon under a mainly sunny sky. The rest of the forecast is below.

*Winter Weather Advisory*

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Cold Wednesday Start

It's just 17° at post time this morning in Cookeville, TN. This is the second morning in a row we wake-up to the teens. Expect a high later today just over 40°. We've been under freezing for nearly 40 straight hours.

A weak system will swing through the area tonight and we could get a freezing rain mixture. With temps so cold the last couple of days, we won't need much precipitation to cause a mess on the roadways.

On Thursday evening another system (this one stronger) will move into our area. The challenging part of this forecast is timing and amount. It appears at this point we'll see temperatures below freezing during that timeframe, which will create a freezing rain, sleet, and snow event. Again with such cold temperatures over the last few days, anything that falls will stick.

Stay in close touch about the weather through Friday night.

HINT: Next week will see warmer temps with highs pushing 60°.

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Sunny Sunday with Massive Fall Off Ahead

If you like a little warm weather, get out and enjoy today because you'll not like the next several days as we switch patterns once again. The coldest air YET of the season roars in for Monday night through Wednesday morning.

*Snow and Ice Report for western, middle Tennessee*

Sunday's forecast is for sunny skies and a high of 49°. The winds will switch around to the northwest at around 5 mph but will become calm later in the day. Clear and cold overnight with a low of 27° by Monday morning. Most schools, state, and federal offices will close on Monday (MLK day). Monday's high is expected to be just 38°.

VERY, VERY COLD
Monday night will be mostly cloudy and frigid with a low of 14° by Tuesday morning. As you send the kids out for school, please bundle them up appropriately. Tuesday's high will be just 25° and we'll be bitterly cold once again on Tuesday night with a low of 15° by Wednesday at sunrise. Wednesday's high will warm a bit to 39°.

Further out, we have a slight chance for rain/snow on Thursday and Friday.

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Sleet, Snow, and Other Fun Stuff

Quite mixed bag of weather today. We expect some accumulation of winter precipitation.

7 Day Forecast

Winter Weather Advisory

Winter Storm Watch

Up to 4" of snow possible Thursday. Yep, get no kidding.

InteractiveNWS - Alert Information

Chance of Heavy Rain Today and Accumulating Snow Tonight

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
418 AM CST WED JAN 16 2013

TNZ011-032>034-063>066-075-077>080-162200-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-
BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BYRDSTOWN...COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...
JAMESTOWN...WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...
SHELBYVILLE...TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT...
SPENCER
418 AM CST WED JAN 16 2013

...MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION
TODAY...
...ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PARTS OF
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE....

THE STALLED WEATHER SYSTEM THAT HAS PRODUCED UP TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL OVER THE PLATEAU DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE RAIN TODAY. ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING
ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR AREAS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. SNOW MAY ALSO FALL IN AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU
INCLUDING MANCHESTER AND PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS SHELBYVILLE.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE INCH THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE BE ALERT FOR POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH FLOODING AND WINTER WEATHER. MONITOR UPDATED WEATHER
FORECASTS FOR ANY POSSIBLE FLOOD OR WINTER WEATHER BULLETINS THAT
MAY BE ISSUED.

National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary:

'via Blog this'

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Strange Day But Short-Lived Relief Ahead

Quite the weather day across much of middle Tennessee with freezing rain to our west past Nashville but only rain in much of the rest of the mid-state. The highest accumulation of ice as of 9:30 pm CST is in Dickson and Perry Counties where around 1/4" is being reported. Typically anything under 1/4" is considered a nuisance. Disruptions can occur with 1/2" while widespread accumulations over 1/2" are considered crippling.

Locally in the Cookeville area, it's been an all rain event. If we don't drop by 3-5° tonight, we should remain all rain by the morning. Temperatures should recover nicely on Wednesday with a daytime high of 42° and rain chance of 60%. A slight rain/snow chance on Wednesday night with no accumulation expected and a low of 30°.

Thursday will finally see us drying out but remain cloudy with a high of 44°. Cold and partly cloudy on Thursday night with a low of 26° by sunrise on Friday.

Friday through the weekend is for warm, sunny days on Friday and Saturday with highs in the 50's but backing down to the mid 40's on Sunday.

We completely fall off the cliff with temps on Monday with a high of just 39° and falling temps with scattered flurries and a low of just 12°. Tuesday's high will be just 27°.

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Cold Tuesday Rain Ahead

**Putnam County Schools will run on a 2 hour opening delay for Tuesday**

*COLD RAIN*
A difficult forecast in the upcoming 24 hour period for Tuesday. I expect a cold rain event for Tuesday, although some freezing rain conditions could occur especially during the morning and evening hours. Some forecasting models show a 1-2" event for our local area. This will affect the typical places where we see street flooding and minor creek flooding so be aware of that possibility.

*SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT*

Temperatures are expected to rise above freezing early this morning after sunrise and top out around 40° for the high temperature with a high of just 35°. We'll only drop a few degrees tonight, but shouldn't be cold enough for a transition back to snow but again may see some freezing rain conditions develop.

ADVICE: Dress the kids warmly in the morning and prepare for a cold, steady rain

This is another situation where 1, 2, 3° makes a difference from a cold rain event to an interesting mixed precipitation event.

REST OF WEEK:
We'll see some moderation in temperatures and dry out as well. Highs in the upper 40's and lower 50's and lows in the 20's and 30's.

LONGER RANGE:
 The following week is looking SIGNIFICANTLY colder with highs only in the 30's and lows in the teens. With the right combination, we may see some winter precipitation but that is unlikely for now.

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Overnight Rains Developing - Flash Flood Watch

UPDATE: Friday's high of 70° was just 2° short of the record set in 1916.
Saturday's high is probably going to be 2° short of the record of 70° set in 1932.

Heavy rain will develop overnight across much of middle Tennessee as a strong low-pressure system moves over the area. With the soil already saturated, heavy rains will run off quickly causing streams, creeks, and rivers to rise. Do not cross water that has run over the top of the road. Remember to avoid areas that are prone to flooding.

**FLASH FLOOD WATCH**

Tonight, a 40% chance of showers late (after 3 am) with a low of 59°. South winds gusting to 25 mph.

Temperatures will fall on Sunday after a morning high of around 64° as some storms will produce heavy rains. South winds will be sustained at 15 mph gusting to 25 mph with rain chances 100%.

The rain continues on Sunday night with falling temperatures. We should be around 37° by daybreak on Monday.

We'll keep rain in the forecast on both Monday and Tuesday with highs only in the mid 40's. Expect sunshine on Wednesday with gusty winds and highs again in the 40's. Cold through the weekend with mainly sunny skies during the day and cold nights. Highs in the upper 40's and lows in the low 30's.

A return to winter is forthcoming!

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Heavy Rains In The Forecast

Much to get to this Saturday morning so lets dive right in to our weather outlook.

A long list of watches, statements, and outlooks:
Flash Flood Watch
Special Weather Statement
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hydrologic Outlook

Currently, it's a very warm 67.9° at 8:30 am on January 12th.
We've not seen a morning this warm since September 17th, 2012! 

For your information, the record high for Cookeville this date is 70° from 1932.

Rain is poised to move in and is at our doorstep.
See latest radar loop here

The expection for Saturday is for a high of 70° with showers and thunderstorms developing after lunch. Winds will be mainly south from 5 to 10 mph and rain chances are 80%. Rain chances are lowered for tonight with a low 59°. We'll call it 50/50 with thunderstorms developing again after midnight.

For Sunday, showers and possibly a thunderstorm with falling temperatures. Heavy rainfall is expected with south winds becoming westerly from 10 to 15 mph and rain chances 100%. The 100% chance continues on Sunday night with a low of 39°. A cold work week is ahead with shower chances through Tuesday. Highs in the 40's and lows in the 30's down to the 20's by Tuesday night.

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Near Record Temps Today and Saturday

Expect some great temperatures today with showers before lunch and a high of around 70°. The record is 70° from 1932. We'll see winds gust to around 20 mph. Did you notice how strong the wind was last night? We had gusts to 30 mph. Tonight, it looks like the rain comes back with a low of just 62°.

For Saturday a 50/50 shot of showers and thunderstorms with a near record-setting high of 72°. The record is 73° from 1972. Saturday night is expected to see showers and thunderstorms continue with a low of 58° and for Sunday, the showers and thunderstorms continue with a high of 64° and a low of 40°.

Much cooler weather is on the horizon for next week.

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Warming Up - Record Heat

Near Record Warmth Expected In Middle Tennessee Friday And
Saturday...

Warning Message:...Then a trend back to colder conditions...
Southerly winds will bring unseasonably warm weather to middle
Tennessee on Friday and Saturday...and produce near record highs.
The forecast high at Nashville on Friday is 72 degrees...which would
tie the old record set back in 1890. A high of 75 degrees is
expected at Nashville on Saturday...which would tie the old record
of 75...also set back in 1890. The all time record high at
Nashville for the month of January is 78 degrees...last set back
on January 24, 1972.
The forecast high at Crossville for Friday is 66...which would
break the old record of 64...set back in 1960. The high
temperature at Crossville on Saturday is expected to be 67...which
would break the old record of 64...also set in 1960. The all time
record high at Crossville for the month of January is 72...set on
January 30, 2002.
This warm spell will be short lived...and is expected to be
followed by a general cooling trend over the next few weeks ...with
some very cold Canadian air possibly arriving by late next week or
shortly thereafter. Temperatures over the next few weeks could
very well tumble some 30 to 40 degrees...or even more...following
this nice warm interlude. So...don't put away the heavy Coats.
They'll probably come in handy again soon.


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Another Warm Day

After hitting 50° on Monday, we'll go up to 54° today under a sunny sky. We'll be even warmer the next few days but will have a chance of showers and possible a thunderstorm as we near the weekend. Highs will warm to near 60° on Wednesday, 64° on Thursday, 67° on Friday, and 68° on Saturday.

It seems that anytime we get really warm in the middle of winter, a major cold snap is just around the corner. Looking on into the month of January, there are good chances temperatures will tumble down once again. The timeframe is looking like the third week of January.

My advice is to enjoy these upcoming warm days because they'll end quickly!

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Slight Rain Chances and a Warmup

Another very cold morning to start with plenty of sunshine.

The low this morning was 21.8° following a low of 20.1° yesterday morning. Temps rise to 46° later today with a slight chance of rain as become more cloudy. If you're out early this morning take a heavy coat and be prepared to scrape your windshield.

For Saturday night, we'll keep a slight chance of showers in the forecast until midnight with a low of around 30° under a cloudy sky.

Sunday will be partly sunny with a high of 46°.

The rest of the upcoming work week promises warmer weather with highs in the upper 40's Monday moderating to the mid 50's on Tuesday and near 60° both Wednesday and Thursday but with a chance of rain those two days.

*Latest Local Forecast*

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