The Weather Guy: November 2013

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Your Thanksgiving Day Forecast

Quite the bummer about the lack of snow across all of the Upper Cumberland.

The simple explanation is this:
Moisture outran the cold air dropping into our area. Without the combination of both, we get very little snow. It's not what most people want to hear. Forecasting snow in Middle TN is one of the hardest things to do.

The funny thing:
No one ever asks about rain except if flooding conditions could occur. No one is concerned over 1/10th of an inch versus 3/10ths of an inch. This was the difference in our snow.

Thanksgiving Forecast:
Bitterly cold tonight with clearing skies. Expect a low of 16° by sunrise. Even colder in the Jamestown and Crossville areas. Brilliant sunshine for Turkey Day and a high of 43°. Calm winds. It should feel nice enough for you all to run some calories off after feasting.

Thursday Night Through The Weekend:
Cold on Thanksgiving night with a low of 24° by Friday morning. Bundle up if you're one of those early Black Friday risers. Gloves, coat, scarf and hat are all key items for early shoppers. Friday looks great with an eventual high of 51° under sunny skies. We'll do a few degrees better on Saturday with more sunshine and a high of 54°. We'll see a slight rain chance on Sunday with a high in the 50's.

Cookeville Christmas Parade:
The early forecast on the Christmas Parade for Cookeville on Monday, December 2 is for a slight chance of showers and temperatures in the upper 40's around 7 pm. A heavy coat is a good idea with a hat and gloves for maximum warmth.

Wind Chill:
One of the most common winter questions outside of snow is about wind chill. I'm including a wind chill graphic as well as a link on wind chill questions below. Let me know if you have any additional questions.

Wind Chill Questions

*Latest Local Forecast*

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Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Significant Winter Weather Ahead

We are headlined with a Winter Weather Advisory in effect beginning at 3:00 pm this afternoon.

RAIN TODAY; SNOW LATE
Today, a 100% chance for rain today before 3 pm with a high temperature of 40°. After 3 pm expect a changeover to a rain/snow mix with possible accumulations.

ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT
Tonight, a 100% chance for snow with a low of 27°. Total accumulations tonight will range from 1 to 3 inches. The highest totals will be in the Fentress and Cumberland County areas in what are the usual high elevation locations.

SLICK ROADS
Snow covered roadways late this afternoon and tonight will be the main problem.

COLD TURKEY DAY
For Wednesday, a 20% chance for snow and a high of just 32°. Wednesday night will be cold with a low of 17° and Thanksgiving will be chilly with sunshine and a high of 41°. The full 7-day forecast is below.

A BUNCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT
Since precipitation began falling late yesterday afternoon, we've recorded 1.30" at my weather station live with more than 1" falling since midnight.

*LATEST SCHOOL CLOSINGS*

*Hazardous Weather Outlook*

*Latest Local Forecast*

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Sunday, November 24, 2013

Possible Snow and Special Weather Statement for Tuesday Night

We are stuck in a cold pattern across the mid-south including the middle Tennessee area. There is a Special Weather Statement (see below) for Tuesday night for possible accumulating snow and I expect we will also see a wind advisory issued at some point.

Sunday's high of 32° was 25° BELOW NORMAL in Cookeville.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY:
Expect another cold night with temps dropping to around 22° after midnight but then gradually rise with increasing clouds. Monday will see the clouds continue to increase with a high of 44°. Calm wind to start but becoming southerly around 5 mph.

HERE IS WHERE IT BECOMES COMPLICATED:
A 50/50 chance of rain and sleet on Monday night.
Little or no snow accumulation expected with a low of 33°.

We'll see this mix continue on Tuesday morning but turn to all rain during the mid-morning hours with a high of 43°.

TUESDAY NIGHT SNOW CHANCES:
On Tuesday night, rain turns to a rain/snow mix in the evening and then to all snow after midnight. The low is expected to be around 27° with gusty north winds from 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow is 50% and some accumulation is possible in higher elevations.

For Wednesday, a chance of snow in the morning and a high of 37° in the afternoon, but it'll be bitterly raw with winds running to 35 mph in gusts. Cold Wednesday night with a low of 21° by Thanksgiving morning.

Expect sunshine and 40° on Thanksgiving Day.

Special Weather Statement

*Latest Local Forecast*

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Not Just Cold, But Very Cold With Snow Chances This Week

Thanksgiving week is upon us!

It is going to be quite cold with temperatures significantly below average.

We start at just 20° this Sunday morning in Cookeville. Wind chill readings have been down in the lower teens as a north wind continues to blow.

Expect a high of 33° under sunny skies for today. North winds from 5 to 15 mph will make it feel quite cold with wind chills in the 22-25° range. Fortunately, we'll have plenty of sunshine to offset the wind.

Daily average temperatures this time of year is 57° for the high and 33° for the low.

Expect 22° tonight for low with a high of 44° on Monday with clouds on the increase. We bring in a chance for mixed precipitation for Monday night, Tuesday, Tuesday night with all snow expected on Wednesday.

Thanksgiving is expected to be chilly with high temps only around 40°.

Just 23° for the early Black Friday shoppers!

*Latest Local Forecast*

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Thursday, November 21, 2013

Rainy Friday, Turning Much Colder This Weekend, Snow by Monday

Quite the interesting forecast over the next few days.
I think we'll see a little bit of everything.

A 50/50 chance for showers after midnight tonight with an 80% chance of showers on Friday. May hear a rumble or two of thunder. Expect a high around 62° on Friday.

Showers continue on Friday night with a low of 42° and only a slight chance for showers and much cooler on Saturday...temperatures will fall most of the day Saturday with a blustery north wind 10 to 15 mph. We will probably see some gradual sunshine on Saturday.

For Saturday, much..much..much colder under a clear sky. Low of 23° by sunrise. Sunshine on Sunday with highs only in the upper 30's (38°). Very cold Sunday night with a low of 24°. Partly sunny Monday with showers and possible sleet developing on Monday night. A cold Thanksgiving week ahead.

*Latest Local Forecast*

Sunday, November 17, 2013

Update on Potential Severe Weather Situation

Timing Map

Continue to stay weather aware this evening. The main threats of this potential severe weather situation are damaging straight-line winds and isolated tornadoes.

So far today we've measured .34" of rain and had wind gusts up to 28 mph.

*Latest Local Forecast*

Two Chances of Strong to Severe Weather on Sunday

There is a lot to discuss in today's forecast.

PLEASE STAY WEATHER AWARE TODAY:
A strong cold front is bearing down upon the area today and will bring with it strong winds and a couple of rounds of strong to severe weather. The first chance for strong storms is this morning extending into this afternoon. The second chance will occur in the late evening hours and brings with it a chance for severe storms that could include isolated tornadoes.

We are already up to 65° this morning and expect the high to top 70° today. After frontal passage, the next 5 days will be mainly in the 50's with lows in the 30's.

We expect winds to pick up this afternoon although we've already had gusts over 30 mph today. Sustained winds will run 20 to 30 mph this afternoon with gusts up to 40 mph.

Three graphics today:

The first explains the timing for the morning/afternoon storms.

The second explains the timing for the evening storms.

The last is the wind advisory map for middle TN.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

WIND ADVISORY

*Latest Local Forecast*

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Saturday, November 16, 2013

Severe Weather Timing For Sunday

Here are the latest thoughts on the severe weather possibilities for Sunday.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - NASHVILLE OFFICE:
We do have the potential for severe thunderstorms for all of Middle Tennessee. The main threats are damaging winds and isolated tornadoes for late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. See the map graphic above for your area. Gusty south winds from 20 to 30 mph will be common most of Sunday with some higher gusts. What we will have to watch is whether or not the early rains set in and lower our chances for severe weather. Without some 'cooking' in the atmosphere, storms may remain below severe limits.

The greatest threat will be in the Great Lakes region and southward into the lower Ohio Valley area.

Take some time now to have a plan and be prepared in the event severe weather happens in your area.

Here is your latest 7-day forecast:
*Latest Local Forecast*

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Friday, November 15, 2013

Rain Chances Today; Storm Chances Sunday

We have two decent rain chances over the next 3 days. More on that in a minute.

MUCH WARMER THIS MORNING:
This morning's temperature (51.4°) is significantly warmer than the last two mornings where we started at 19° and 21°. Expect todays high to only rise a few more degrees and we'll throw in a 40% chance of rain under a cloudy sky.

REST OF WEEKEND:
Skies will remain cloudy overnight and into Saturday with a high of 65°. I think rain chances will hold off on Saturday. For Sunday a strong cold front bears down upon our area and will bring with it a good chance of thunderstorms. Some predictions are calling for strong storms and possible tornadic activity, but I'm a little hesitant at this point.

SUNNY NEXT WEEK:
Next week's forecast is for sunny and cooler weather!

*Latest Local Forecast*

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Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Coldest Morning of The Season

After seeing snow showers on Tuesday, we start Wednesday morning at just 18.5°. The last time it was this cold was back on February 17th. That is a span of 9 months or 270 days. For those of you wondering where this morning's low compares, the record for this date is 15°, which occurred back in 1920. A record that has stood for 93 years.

CHILLY TODAY; WARMER TOMORROW:
I do expect us to go up to the mid 40's today (44°) for the high temperature under sunny skies. It'll feel warmer due to the sunshine and light winds. We will have another cold night across the region and expect lows to drop to the middle 20's. For Thursday, we'll repeat today's forecast with sunny skies but add about 11° to the forecasted high as we'll hit 55°.

WEEKEND FORECAST:
Clouds return on Friday with a high near 60° and rain is expected for the weekend with only a slight chance on Saturday and a better chance on Sunday.

*Latest Local Forecast*

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Monday, November 11, 2013

Special Weather Statement

This statement is from the Nashville Weather Forecast Office for the National Weather Service.

...A Strong Cold Front Will Usher In Cold Temperatures And A Chance For A Little Snow On Tuesday...
A Strong Cold Front Will Push Through Middle Tennessee Early Tuesday Morning...Bringing Blustery Conditions...Light Snow At Higher Elevations...And An Arctic Air Mass That Will Plunge Temperatures Into The 20s.
Winds Across Much Of Middle Tennessee Will Increase To 15 To 30
Mph Early On Tuesday And Continue Through The Afternoon As The Cold Front Moves Across The Mid State. Given These Winds And Cold Temperatures Behind The Front...Wind Chills Will Plunge Into The Upper 20s Even During The Day.
Also...Light Snow Is Possible Along The Highland Rim And Cumberland Plateau On Tuesday. Ground Temperatures Will Remain Above Freezing...And Even The Air Temperature Will Likely Hover Just Above Freezing During The Day. Thus Accumulation On Roads And Pavement Is Not Likely To Occur.
Finally...Strong High Pressure Over The Upper Midwest Will Build Into Middle Tennessee Behind The Cold Front...Spreading A Frigid Arctic Air Mass Across The Region. Temperatures Tuesday Night And Wednesday Night Will Drop Well Into The 20s.

Friday, November 8, 2013

Cold Friday Start with the S Word Coming Mid Next Week

Good Friday morning friends. It is a cold start (26.9°) this morning at 6:22 am. I do expect us to warm up fairly quick once the sun rises and we'll top out around 57° this afternoon under a sunny sky.

WEEKEND FORECAST:
The weekend looks fantastic with a high of 62° on Saturday and 60° on Sunday under sunny skies. The lows will be down in the 30's. Veterans Day on Monday will be the same with sunny skies and a high in the lower 60's.

MASSIVE CHANGE WITH SNOW POSSIBLE?:
We have a significant drop in temps by Tuesday as a major cold front roars through Middle TN. Highs Tuesday just around 50° and then the "S" word is in the forecast for Tuesday night and Wednesday. We will have much, much more on this developing situation over the weekend.

*Latest Local Forecast*

Thursday's high in Cookeville: 59.0° at 12:06 am

This morning's low: 26.9° at 6:22 am

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